Length: Approx 1300 words/6 minutes

I consider scientists who can write for the layman to be a national treasure. This task is, from what I can tell, pretty hard work. Can you imagine trying to bring the mysteries of something like astronomy to the masses? Fortunately those like Carl Sagan and his heir Niels deGrasse Tyson have tackled this task on our behalf.

A double good fortune is that there are also good writers in the fields of psychology and the behavioral sciences to explain the secrets of our minds and the reasons that we behave as we do. Who after all, does not like to hear about what makes us tick? These scientist-writers open that door for us.

What is interesting about these fields is that they have revealed many human characteristics that we deny having. Even when they are explained to us we still fudge around the fact with a “No, I don’t do that.” Ha! Famous last words!

Confirmation bias is one of these tics. This occurs when we look at new data or evidence and consider them nothing more than a validation stamp of our existing beliefs. Say, for example, that I bought a stock based on my in-depth research and sure enough today it went up. That means my research and conclusions were valid right? Well, maybe not. Maybe the stock went up because of something outside the bounds of my research—it might have been insider trading. We make these errors every day and while they are often harmless, they can sometimes be quite serious. Think of a pilot flying in the clouds who convinces himself that he is clear of a mountain. Of course he is right isn’t he? After all, he just looked at the map to make sure of where he was…

Another not so hidden bias makes us want to follow the trail blazed by successful people. We can’t get enough of the biographies of those who have done great things in life. Whether it is a sports figure like the swimmer Michael Phelps, a scientist like Richard Feynman, or business pioneers like Elon Musk or Steve Jobs we are captivated by them—often with good reason.

It is natural therefore that we wish to know “how they did it” and bookstores, both real and virtual, serve this desire by bursting with shelves of books that tell us everything we want to know about these luminaries and their magic secret to success.

Part of our interest is to know if it would work for us. If we followed the same daily regimen could we get the same results? An eternal question no doubt and the answer is, at least for most of us, probably not—even if we read the books they do, train as they do, and concentrate our minds on the things that they do.

This is where we get caught in the illusion of success survivor bias. Those who get books written by and about them are survivors in this game of success. What they did worked for them but that is no guarantee that it will work for us. Sure, good habits and work/play patterns are both admirable and necessary to any kind of good life, but we cannot overlook that there is also a certain spark in these individuals, something that is often indiscernible and elusive, that has to be there to accomplish great things. Sadly, just getting up at 4:30 a.m. to run full tilt until late evening is only part of it.

Brett McKay produces a podcast called The Art of Manliness. This is a misnomer for in my opinion he covers topics that are of interest to both sides of the gender equation. In December 2016 Brett hosted Tim Ferriss who is the author of the bestseller The Tools of Titans. Now both these gentlemen are far above average, almost atmospheric in the case of Ferriss, yet they have discussed this concept of success survivor bias and the extreme lengths we go to mimic the habits of high-achievers. It was the first time I had heard it of it and I recommend it to you here: McKay interviews Ferriss I found it all the more interesting as the habits they discussed are as foreign to me as a manuscript written in Sanskrit.

We who are cut from average timber already kind of/sort of intuit this. I am the same age as Michael Jordon and if we both, when we were seniors in high school, shot 200 free throws per day there is no question that Michael would have benefitted more from the task as he had that spark and I did not. Of course this type of practice is exactly what Jordon did each day and through him we discover one of the definitions of talent—the results gained for the amount of time practiced.

While we average folk complete our tasks with diligence and perseverance, at some point reality dictates that we decide whether we should really enslave our lives to grinding schedules in the hopes of a payoff that might never arrive. In other words, we can practice a lot of things yet never get that much better.

This is a personal decision and a hard one to make. I certainly don’t know where the line is and chalk it up to being one of those aspects of life that has no answer. I do know though that we, myself included, are eager consumers of the stories of those who are either born with great gifts and talents or have beavered away for years in anonymity to finally make it good.

Since we are left to find our own way, perhaps the best advice is to mix and match those techniques that work for us in our lives. Emulating all the habits of the great and the good can be a fool’s errand—particularly if there is not an underlying talent just waiting to be unleashed…and as an average gent I know that there is only so much in my tank to start.

While we admire and are inspired by those “who never gave up,” Let’s be realistic about it all to make things better for ourselves, our families, and our friends. If you have the talent then enjoy it and run with it. If not, come join me in the bleachers of the just average and we can enjoy the spectacle together—there is always plenty of room after all!

Success survivor bias, by the way is not necessarily a bad thing—just something to be managed. It often inspires youth to be bold and ambitious in setting goals while learning to manage risk. Remember though, it is the survivors that we hear from. They are the ones who can speak of the elation of having met challenges and dangers head on and stared them down. We forget that those who do not make it are always not here to offer an opposing voice.

Each afternoon around three p.m. (yes, that is 3 post meridian and not 3 ante meridian) when I pull myself from bed I think first of all the great things that have already been accomplished that very day by those high-achievers in the success survivor brigade. God bless them I say as I reassure them that I surely shan’t stand in their way!

In the meantime, stay average!